EURO 2024: Croatia vs Italy

Background and Context

Croatia and Italy are set to face each other in a crucial Group B match at EURO 2024. Croatia, currently in fourth place with only one point, needs a win to avoid early elimination. Italy, on the other hand, is in second place and can secure a knockout spot with a draw. The match will take place at the Leipzig Stadium.

Head-to-Head Record

Since gaining independence in the early 1990s, Croatia are unbeaten in their eight meetings against Italy (W3 D5). Their last three encounters have all ended 1-1. This will be their third meeting at a major tournament, with Croatia winning 2-1 at the 2002 World Cup and drawing 1-1 at Euro 2012.

Recent Form

Croatia has struggled in their previous matches, conceding five goals and scoring only two. They drew with Albania 2-2 in their last match, which included a dramatic late equalizer. Italy, on the other hand, lost to Spain 1-0 in their last match, their first loss at the European Championship since 2016.

Predictions and Analysis

The Opta supercomputer predicts Italy to win this match in 50.6% of its 10,000 simulations. Croatia can win in 25.7% of scenarios, while the draw, which would secure Italy's knockout spot, occurs 24.9% of the time. BetMines predicts that both teams will score at least one goal.

Possible Lineups

Croatia may see changes in their lineup, with players like Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić moving positions. Italy will need to regroup after their defeat to Spain and work on their mental resilience against Croatia. The possible lineups for both teams are:

• Croatia: Livaković; Stanišić, Šutalo, Gvardiol, Perišić; Modrić, Sučić, Kovačić; Pašalić, Budimir, Kramarić.
• Italy: Donnarumma; Darmian, Bastoni, Calafiori, Dimarco; Cristante, Jorginho; Barella, Pellegrini, Chiesa; Retegui.

Conclusion

This match promises to be a significant encounter for both teams. Croatia needs a win to avoid elimination, while Italy can secure a knockout spot with a draw. The head-to-head record favors Croatia, but Italy's recent form suggests they may be able to pull off a win. The Opta supercomputer and BetMines both predict a close match with both teams scoring. The outcome will depend on the teams' ability to adapt and make the most of their chances.

The Bad Tackle

Look forward to it.