EURO 2024: Slovenia vs. Serbia

Introduction

The second matchday of Group C at EURO 2024 sees Slovenia face off against Serbia in Munich. Both teams are looking to bounce back from their opening matches, with Slovenia drawing against Denmark and Serbia losing to England. In this analysis, we will examine the key statistics, team news, and predictions for this crucial encounter.

Team News and Form

Slovenia

• Form: Slovenia have played more matches at the UEFA European Championship without ever winning than any other nation, drawing three and losing one of their four matches in the competition.
• Recent Form: Slovenia have lost just two of their last 22 matches (W13 D7), going down 2-0 against Finland and 2-1 against Denmark last year in EURO qualifying.
• Key Players: Erik Janza scored Slovenia's goal in their 1-1 draw with Denmark in the opening match. No player was involved in more of Slovenia's attempts than Janza (5 – 3 shots, 2 chances created).

Serbia

• Form: Serbia have a rich history in the UEFA European Championship, winning two of their first three matches (L1), reaching the final in both 1960 and 1968. However, since then they've won just one and lost nine of their 12 matches in the competition.
• Recent Form: Serbia committed 19 fouls against England in their opening match of EURO 2024, their highest number of fouls conceded in a competitive international since October 2019 (19 vs Lithuania in a EURO 2020 qualifier).
• Key Players: Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored a goal in each of his two previous matches against Slovenia. Only against Lithuania (2018-2019), Luxembourg (2019-2021) and Portugal (2019-2021) has he ever scored in three consecutive international appearances.

Predictions and Analysis

• Opta Supercomputer: Serbia are the favourites to win this match, coming out on top in 51.5% of the Opta supercomputer's pre-match simulations. Slovenia are left with a 24.3% chance of winning.
• Recent Head-to-Head: Six of the previous eight matches between Slovenia and Serbia have ended in a draw, with each side winning once apiece in the others.
• Key Insights: Serbia are given a 49.2% chance of winning this game by the Opta supercomputer, compared to 24.3% for Slovenia.

Conclusion

In this crucial match, both teams will be looking to bounce back from their opening matches. Slovenia will be relying on their recent form and key players like Erik Janza to secure a positive result. Serbia, on the other hand, will be counting on their attacking quality and the form of Aleksandar Mitrovic to regain momentum. With both teams having a history of drawing against each other, this match is likely to be a closely contested and intense encounter.

The Bad Tackle

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